New York Times Talks Ventilators

Dr. David Sunwall, Director of the Utah Health Department, notified my Father and I about a great Article in the New York Times "Hospitals Short on Ventilators if Bird Flu Hits ." This article addresses the problem of a ventilator shortage during a pandemic and his numbers agree well with our estimates. The article mentions the Vortran Automatic Resuscitator as a cheap and efficient example of a vent that could be stockpiled and used during a disaster or pandemic (http://www.vortran.com/automatic-resuscitator.htm). This vent is purely pressure controlled and seems to operate akin to the magnet and bobbin "minivent" described in Anesthesia ( Cohen AD, The minivent respirator. Anesthesia. 1966 Oct; 21(4):563-8). The vent doesn't generate the optimal pressure/volume curve for ARDS, but hey, it only cost 50$.

The article also points out that even if we had all the necessary vents, we wouldn't have enough people to monitor them. One idea to remedy that would be to include ventilator theory and operation as part of Advanced Disaster, Cardiac, and Trauma Life Support curriculums. Also, Basic courses should also include vent theory as they do Automatic Cardiac Deffibrillator (ACD) operation.

This article also corrects my last email. The Strategic National Stockpile has 4,000-5,000 vents total, and not per cache. I support additional research in feasibility of using such a emergency vent for a pandemic scenario as well as investing money in stockpiling such devices.

Local versus Global Disaster Preparation

Now, more than ever before we face the possibility of natural or man-made disasters. Natural disasters come in the form of tsunami, asteroid impacts, earthquake, volcano, and hurricane. Man-made disasters include nuclear detonation and bioterrorism. There are also disasters that are a result of natural and man-made influences such as a dam break or forest fire. Local and national governments plan and prepare for disaster but their preparation does not supplant individual and family preparedness. It is the duty of every individual to be prepared for difficult times.

In addition to dividing disasters into natural vs. Man-made, it is more useful to define disasters in terms of their range of influence; such as individual, local, regional, and global. Similar principles of preparedness are applicable to each type, but each requires are different type of preparedness.

The most important aspect of any type of preparedness, whether individual or global, is spiritual preparation. If you feel your life is in-line with the will of God then you will be prepared for any eventuality. The scriptures promise, "If ye are [spiritually] prepared, ye shall not fear."

Individual Disasters can include lost work, disability, death of a loved one, or home fire. It is important to save, get out of debt, and have a strong social support network as well as an array of coping mechanisms. Disasters are stressful and those who deal best with stress can deal with it through exercise, sports, music, or humor. Other characteristics of people who successfully weather adversity include being adaptable, creative, and optimistic. These people make lemonade out of lemons and see the silver lining around even the darkest cloud.

Local and national government have done well preparing for and responding to local disasters such as earthquake and flood. Hurricane Katrina was actually a regional disaster involving 4 US states and exceeded the US's ability to respond. Therefore, it was a true disaster by definition. That said, many other disasters such as earthquake or forest fire are more local in extent. Therefore, local and national governments have the resources to respond in a timely manner. However, even the most timely response, aide may not reach you for up to 72 hours. So, the best preparation for a local catastrophe is a 72-hour kit.

A 72-hour kit is placed in 2-3 duffle bags or backpacks that can be picked up and carried at a moments notice. It should contain food, water purification, medical essentials, radio, and other essentials for keeping warm and dry for 3 days until outside help can arrive. It is also important to bring important papers with you such as title to home, cars, etc.

Regional and global catastrophes are true disasters. These have such a wide area of effect that no government could adequately prepare. That said, individuals can effectively and economically prepare for these broader threats. Such disasters may not directly cause harm but have such broad effects generally that there are disruptions of transportation, utilities, and the economy. In such instances, having a supply of food stuffs to preserve life for 1 year is the best manner of preparation. This involves the storage of commodities such as wheat, beans, rice, oil, sugar, powdered milk, and medicines. Stockpiling canned food is very inefficient. Canned food is mostly water. Dry-pack storage of wheat, beans, rice is the most economical, efficient, and effective way to store food. To learn how to create an emergency food storage go to http://www.providentliving.org/ and http://www.emergencyessentials.com/.

How to Survive the H5N1 Avian Flu Pandemic

There is something everyone can do to prepare for the H5N1 avian flu pandemic. You don't need a vaccine. You don't need Tamiflu. Protection is as easy as self-quarantine. You lock yourself in your home, you don't visit, you don't have visitors. According to the lastest H5N1 avian flu pandemic poll conducted by Harvard, this is exactly what Americans plan on doing. However, this means you can't visit the grocery store or the hospital. So, your family must have commodities such as wheat, beans, rice, oil, sugar, powdered milk, and medicines, to keep you alive for at least 3 months. Stockpiling canned food is very inefficent. Canned food is mostly water. Storage of dry wheat, beans, rice is the most economical, efficient, and effective way to stockpile. To learn how to create an emergency food storage for the H5N1 avian flu pandemic go to http://www.providentliving.org/ and http://www.emergencyessentials.com/.
http://avianpandemicflu.blogspot.com/

Top 10 US Disaster Threats

10. Pacific Northwest Megathrust Earthquake. Geologists know it’s just a matter of time before another 9.0 or larger earthquake strikes somewhere between Northern California and Canada. The shaking would be locally catastrophic, but the biggest threat is the tsunami that would ensue from a fault line that’s seismically identical to the one that caused the deadly 2004 tsunami in Indonesia.
9. New York Hurricane. Major hurricanes have made direct hits on the boroughs before, but the interval between them is so long that people forget, and officials fear they might not take evacuation orders seriously. The larger problem: It would take nearly 24 hours to make a proper evacuation of New York City, but hurricanes move more swiftly as they race north, so real warning time could be just a few hours.
8. Asteroid Impact. Scientists can’t say when the next devastating asteroid impact will occur. Odds are it won’t be for decades or centuries, but an unknown space rock could make a sucker punch any time. Many experts say planning to deal with a continent-wide catastrophe should begin now.
7. Los Angeles Tsunami. An earthquake fault just off Southern California could generate a major quake and a $42 billion tsunami that would strike so fast many coastal residents would not have time to escape. Add to that the unprecedented destruction from the earthquake’s shaking, and the situation would be reminiscent of Hurricane Katrina.
6. Supervolcano. It probably won’t happen for hundreds or possibly even millions of years, but nobody really knows when Yellowstone will blow again, destroying life for hundreds of miles around and burying half the country in ash up to 3 feet (1 meter) deep.
5. Midwest Earthquake. It has been nearly two centuries since a series of three magnitude-8 quakes shook the then-sparsely populated Midwest, centered near New Madrid, Missouri. Another big one is inevitable. Now the region is heavily populated, yet building codes are generally not up to earthquake snuff. What’s more, geology east of the Rockies causes quakes to be felt across a much wider region. Shelves would rattle from Boston to South Carolina. Some homes along the Mississippi would sink into oblivion.
4. Heat Waves. Heat waves kill more U.S. residents than any other natural disaster. As many as 10,000 people have died in past events. As urban areas get hotter, electricity systems are strained and the population ages, the risk grows.
3. East Coast Tsunami. It seems no coast is immune to the threat of tsunami. For the Eastern United States, the likeliest scenario is waves kicked up by an asteroid splashing into the ocean. Astronomers already have their eye on one rock that could hit in the distant future, but the cosmos could hold a surprise, too.
2. Gulf Coast Tsunami. A fault line in the Caribbean has generated deadly tsunamis before. Up to 35 million people could be threatened by one in the not-to-distant future, scientists say.
1. Total Destruction of Earth. Okay, so nobody is spending too much time worrying about what to do if the planet is annihilated, but at least one person has seriously pondered whether and when it could happen. From being sucked into a black hole to being blown up by an antimatter reaction, there are scientifically plausible risks of an event that would render this whole list moot.
http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/top10_naturaldisasterthreats_us.html

Strategic National Stockpile

Dr. Phillip Coule, director of the MCG Center of Operational Medicine reported today that each strategic national stockpile (SNS) cache will contain 2-5,000 univents/minivents as well as antibiotics and other medications. These ventilators will be available to treat victims of the impending H5N1 avian flu pandemic. I am pleased that the Department of Health and Human Services is taking such steps in preparing our country for any eventuality. Ofcourse, this news does not supplant individual and local preparation for the H5N1 avian flu pandemic. http://www.mcg.edu/news/2005NewsRel/Stories/DisasterPrep091305.html