How Does the NATO Extend (Provoke) Russia

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html

Extending Russia

Competing from Advantageous Ground

James Dobbins, Raphael S. Cohen, Nathan Chandler, Bryan Frederick, Edward Geist, Paul DeLuca, Forrest E. Morgan, Howard J. Shatz, Brent Williams

ResearchPublished Apr 24, 2019

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html

Overextending and Unbalancing Russia

Assessing the Impact of Cost-Imposing Options

James Dobbins, Raphael S. Cohen, Nathan Chandler, Bryan Frederick, Edward Geist, Paul DeLuca, Forrest E. Morgan, Howard J. Shatz, Brent Williams

Research SummaryPublished Apr 24, 2019

Jeffery Sachs: The War is Over

https://www.youtube.com/live/ewvrbvEckxQ?si=Y3lrIVcZBJEaK22_

https://www.dougfeith.com/docs/Clean_Break.pdf

A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm (commonly known as the "Clean Break" report) is a policy document that was prepared in 1996 by a study group led by Richard Perle

BIS BASEL 3 implementation (Grok 3)

The Basel III "Endgame" rules, set for implementation on July 1, 2025, in the U.S., finalize a decade-long effort by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to strengthen global banking standards. These rules, building on lessons from past Basel frameworks, aim to boost bank resilience by refining capital requirements for credit, market, and operational risks. Let’s unpack their potential impact on the repo market, the broader economy, subprime car loans, and commercial real estate (CRE), while reflecting on Basel I and II’s historical fallout.

Repo Market Impact

The repo market—where banks and institutions borrow short-term using securities like Treasuries as collateral—could face tighter conditions under Basel III Endgame. The rules tweak how banks calculate risk-weighted assets (RWAs), notably by scrapping internal models for credit risk and imposing stricter standards for market risk via the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB). For repo-style transactions, the original proposal included minimum haircut floors (extra collateral buffers), which would’ve jacked up capital requirements. But Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr’s September 2024 reproposal ditched these floors, aligning with the U.K. and EU’s lighter touch. Still, the shift to standardized risk models could raise capital costs for banks’ securities financing activities, potentially shrinking repo liquidity. Less repo activity might mean higher borrowing costs for banks and hedge funds, nudging up rates in money markets. It’s not a meltdown scenario—U.S. banks are well-capitalized—but it could cool a market already jittery from Fed rate shifts.

Broader Economy

Basel III Endgame’s economic ripple hinges on how banks adapt to higher capital buffers. The reproposal, per Barr, cuts the aggregate capital hike for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) to 9% from an earlier 16-19%, sparing smaller banks ($100-250 billion in assets) from most rules except recognizing securities’ unrealized gains/losses. This softening aims to blunt economic drag, but banks might still tighten lending to offset costs, echoing Basel I’s credit crunch in Japan (1990s) and Basel II’s role in over-leveraged housing pre-2008. Studies, like those from the Bank Policy Institute, peg each 1% capital increase as slashing U.S. GDP by $42 billion annually—crude, but it suggests restraint on credit could hit growth. Securitization markets (mortgages, auto loans) might also get pricier, raising costs for households and businesses. The Fed’s balancing act—resilience vs. growth—means no repeat of Japan’s stagnation or 2008’s bubble pop, but a slower, costlier credit environment is plausible.

Subprime Car Loans

Subprime auto loans, already a $1.6 trillion market with rising delinquencies (over 9% in 2024 per Cox Automotive), could feel the pinch. Basel III Endgame’s standardized credit risk approach adjusts risk weights for retail exposures, including auto loans. The reproposal lowers weights for prime retail loans but keeps subprime pools riskier by design—think 85-100% RWAs vs. prime’s lower tiers. Securitization changes also matter: the SEC-SA (standardized approach) fixes a punitive “p-factor” at 1, ignoring pool quality, which could hike capital for subprime-backed securities compared to prime ones. Banks might pull back from holding these riskier tranches, pushing subprime lending to non-banks (e.g., private credit funds) less bound by Basel. This shift could spike borrowing rates for subprime buyers—already at 15-20% APR—worsening defaults if jobs soften. No 2008-style crash, but a stressed niche could amplify economic slowdown.

Commercial Real Estate (CRE)

CRE’s outlook under Basel III Endgame is murkier, given its $4.5 trillion loan exposure and post-COVID woes (office vacancies at 19%, per CBRE). The reproposal eases risk weights for residential real estate (up to 90% LTV) but keeps commercial exposures nuanced—high-volatility CRE (e.g., construction loans) still carries steep RWAs. Banks with big CRE portfolios, especially regional ones, might face higher capital hits, prompting them to offload loans or jack up rates. Unlike Basel II, which fueled a housing bubble via lax risk models, Endgame’s standardized rigor could curb CRE lending enthusiasm. With $1.5 trillion in CRE debt maturing by 2027 (Moody’s), refinancing at higher rates plus tighter bank standards could spark defaults, particularly in oversupplied office and retail sectors. Not a systemic bust—banks hold 40% of CRE loans vs. 80% for housing in 2008—but a drag on recovery in a rate-sensitive market.

Historical Echoes

Basel I crushed Japan by forcing banks to hoard capital, slashing lending, and deepening a lost decade. Basel II’s flexible models let U.S. banks overextend into subprime mortgages, popping the housing bubble when risk blew up. Endgame learns from both: it ditches internal models to avoid Basel II’s blind spots and tempers capital hikes to dodge Basel I’s chokehold. But the law of unintended consequences looms—pushing risk to shadow banks or over-correcting on liquidity could still bite.

Bottom Line

July 1, 2025, kicks off a three-year phase-in, so impacts won’t hit full force until 2028. The repo market might thin out, nudging up short-term rates. The economy could see credit tighten, but not collapse—think slower growth, not crisis. Subprime car loans face higher costs and non-bank migration, risking defaults. CRE could stumble, especially where debt’s due and values are shaky. Basel III Endgame’s not a replay of past disasters—it’s calibrated to avoid them—but it’ll reshape how banks play, likely at some cost to leverage-loving sectors. Data’s still fuzzy (no full quantitative impact study yet), so expect banks to lobby and regulators to tweak as reality unfolds.

BIS BASEL 3 implementation

The Basel III "Endgame" rules, set for implementation on July 1, 2025, in the U.S., finalize a decade-long effort by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to strengthen global banking standards. These rules, building on lessons from past Basel frameworks, aim to boost bank resilience by refining capital requirements for credit, market, and operational risks. Let’s unpack their potential impact on the repo market, the broader economy, subprime car loans, and commercial real estate (CRE), while reflecting on Basel I and II’s historical fallout.

Repo Market Impact

The repo market—where banks and institutions borrow short-term using securities like Treasuries as collateral—could face tighter conditions under Basel III Endgame. The rules tweak how banks calculate risk-weighted assets (RWAs), notably by scrapping internal models for credit risk and imposing stricter standards for market risk via the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB). For repo-style transactions, the original proposal included minimum haircut floors (extra collateral buffers), which would’ve jacked up capital requirements. But Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr’s September 2024 reproposal ditched these floors, aligning with the U.K. and EU’s lighter touch. Still, the shift to standardized risk models could raise capital costs for banks’ securities financing activities, potentially shrinking repo liquidity. Less repo activity might mean higher borrowing costs for banks and hedge funds, nudging up rates in money markets. It’s not a meltdown scenario—U.S. banks are well-capitalized—but it could cool a market already jittery from Fed rate shifts.

Broader Economy

Basel III Endgame’s economic ripple hinges on how banks adapt to higher capital buffers. The reproposal, per Barr, cuts the aggregate capital hike for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) to 9% from an earlier 16-19%, sparing smaller banks ($100-250 billion in assets) from most rules except recognizing securities’ unrealized gains/losses. This softening aims to blunt economic drag, but banks might still tighten lending to offset costs, echoing Basel I’s credit crunch in Japan (1990s) and Basel II’s role in over-leveraged housing pre-2008. Studies, like those from the Bank Policy Institute, peg each 1% capital increase as slashing U.S. GDP by $42 billion annually—crude, but it suggests restraint on credit could hit growth. Securitization markets (mortgages, auto loans) might also get pricier, raising costs for households and businesses. The Fed’s balancing act—resilience vs. growth—means no repeat of Japan’s stagnation or 2008’s bubble pop, but a slower, costlier credit environment is plausible.

Subprime Car Loans

Subprime auto loans, already a $1.6 trillion market with rising delinquencies (over 9% in 2024 per Cox Automotive), could feel the pinch. Basel III Endgame’s standardized credit risk approach adjusts risk weights for retail exposures, including auto loans. The reproposal lowers weights for prime retail loans but keeps subprime pools riskier by design—think 85-100% RWAs vs. prime’s lower tiers. Securitization changes also matter: the SEC-SA (standardized approach) fixes a punitive “p-factor” at 1, ignoring pool quality, which could hike capital for subprime-backed securities compared to prime ones. Banks might pull back from holding these riskier tranches, pushing subprime lending to non-banks (e.g., private credit funds) less bound by Basel. This shift could spike borrowing rates for subprime buyers—already at 15-20% APR—worsening defaults if jobs soften. No 2008-style crash, but a stressed niche could amplify economic slowdown.

Commercial Real Estate (CRE)

CRE’s outlook under Basel III Endgame is murkier, given its $4.5 trillion loan exposure and post-COVID woes (office vacancies at 19%, per CBRE). The reproposal eases risk weights for residential real estate (up to 90% LTV) but keeps commercial exposures nuanced—high-volatility CRE (e.g., construction loans) still carries steep RWAs. Banks with big CRE portfolios, especially regional ones, might face higher capital hits, prompting them to offload loans or jack up rates. Unlike Basel II, which fueled a housing bubble via lax risk models, Endgame’s standardized rigor could curb CRE lending enthusiasm. With $1.5 trillion in CRE debt maturing by 2027 (Moody’s), refinancing at higher rates plus tighter bank standards could spark defaults, particularly in oversupplied office and retail sectors. Not a systemic bust—banks hold 40% of CRE loans vs. 80% for housing in 2008—but a drag on recovery in a rate-sensitive market.

Historical Echoes

Basel I crushed Japan by forcing banks to hoard capital, slashing lending, and deepening a lost decade. Basel II’s flexible models let U.S. banks overextend into subprime mortgages, popping the housing bubble when risk blew up. Endgame learns from both: it ditches internal models to avoid Basel II’s blind spots and tempers capital hikes to dodge Basel I’s chokehold. But the law of unintended consequences looms—pushing risk to shadow banks or over-correcting on liquidity could still bite.

Bottom Line

July 1, 2025, kicks off a three-year phase-in, so impacts won’t hit full force until 2028. The repo market might thin out, nudging up short-term rates. The economy could see credit tighten, but not collapse—think slower growth, not crisis. Subprime car loans face higher costs and non-bank migration, risking defaults. CRE could stumble, especially where debt’s due and values are shaky. Basel III Endgame’s not a replay of past disasters—it’s calibrated to avoid them—but it’ll reshape how banks play, likely at some cost to leverage-loving sectors. Data’s still fuzzy (no full quantitative impact study yet), so expect banks to lobby and regulators to tweak as reality unfolds.

LENR-CANR

Is the footage of cold fusion in the movie the Saint actually real? I am talking to just the short lo-res footage of the experiment working and boiling water. CIA often plants plot devices in movies, news and media. I think it is real and the Deep State rubbing our nose in their ability to suppress this technology they possess but deny the people. I think it is real.

Eugene Mallove, who worked in the MIT News Office, has written "Fire From Ice"

he reports MIT researchers falsified data to suppress cold fusion and then having a drunken rauccous party to celebrate Pons and Fleischmans demise and their success. Mallove's allegations are based on his own investigation, including interviews with people involved in the experiment, and his access to internal documents and communications.

Hot nuclear poses an existential threat to AI future and photolithography. AI needs safe power like cold fusion to boil water to turn magnets in generator turbines. Hot nuclear leads to bombs and ICBMs and EMP and the potential end to modern society and the loss of our apex technology of photolithography.

LENR-CANR during electrolysis has been documented as multiple etched pits in plastic chips demonstating the tracks of fusion and production of alpha particles or helium.

Response to Jeff Lindsay's Meridian Magazine Series on Book of Mormon Secret Combinations

[I appreciate but don't think Jeff Lindsay goes far enough in his Meridian Magazine series on Book of Mormon secret combinations and conspiracy.  I think it's more than just a over-centralized business with good intentions gone bad.  But, Jeff goes pretty far and further than most on this subject. Great Job!]

Jeff,

I apologize, I had some other thoughts with regard to the excellent points you were making in your Median Magazine series on secret combinations. I CC'd a couple people I have had this discussion with in the past.

Jewish Rabbi (former internatiinal director of the Temple institute), Chaim Richman taught in his weekly podcast that the Bible teaches that the Great Flood in the time of Noah was sent because the world was filled with "violence". The word used in the Hebrew Bible is "hamas" and means "conspiracy" and "robbery". He gave an example of a bean seller, that if one person stole all this sellers beans the thief would be huilty of breaking Torah law, but if 1000 people came stealling only 1 bean each, none of the 1000 would be guilty of breaking Torah law, but this sellers business would still be destroyed. According to the Rabbi, this was an example of "robbery" and "hamas".

I 100% agree that when power is concentrated into the hands of a few individuals, "power corrupts amd absolute power corrupts absolutely." However, even though these "Milner Group" or "Council on Foreign Relations" or the 666 other corrupt entities with different names but the same people. (Joseph Smith's interpretation), decend into chaos in spite of their "good intentions"; I think that only describing it as a "business" to "get gain", does not adequately tell the whole story.

Alma 37:21 And now, I will speak unto you concerning those twenty-four plates, that ye keep them, that the mysteries and the works of darkness, and their secret works, or the secret works of those people who have been destroyed, may be made manifest unto this people; yea, all their murders, and robbings, and their plunderings, and all their wickedness and abominations, may be made manifest unto this people; yea, and that ye preserve these interpreters

The point here is that "the Conspiracy" has its own "mysteries" and thus operates as a counterfeit to true religion and operates like a religion and not only like a business. And, I believe is exactly what Nephi is referring to as "The Great and Abominable Church" and what John refers to as "The Mother of Abomination" is referring to this same Latter-Day conspiracy that unfortunately does seem to have or have had "sole management of the government". (not sure about Trump).

Some people resist believing that there is a "great monolithic conspiracy". While the conspiracy is not immune from becoming "divided against itself," John does say there is ultimately a "Mother of Abomination" and also that eventually, the Beast upon which the Harlot sits, will become angry and, "these shall hate the whore, and shall make her desolate and naked, and shall eat her flesh, and burn her with fire" (Rev 17:16). Thus, in the end, God will fight this battle for us, vengeance is His, the house divided against itself will fall, the wicked will destroy the wicked, and the Great Conspiracy will ultimately fall into its own pit.

I think Joel Skousen would tend to agree with what I'm saying, although I come to it independently, that the Great Conspiracy operates on several levels:

At the top, it is a multigeneratiional satanic death-cult. I don't pretend to understand it's evil motivations as it represents pure suicidal madness (eg poseessed herd of pigs). These people want maximum death, misery, and suffering. They may have imagined up that they are serving some ultimate noble purpose (ie world needs evil), that they are called to be evil, and that they are promised some sort of immunity from judgment. It is all pure delusion. ("necessary evil" -Bane, Dark Knight)

The second level is the operational and business side of it. These people follow along for various reasons. Satan recruits prideful, grandiose and covert narcissists. Narcissists believe the rules dont apply to them because they are special; 1. either better then everyone else or 2. an exception to the commandments because they are a victim. They succumb to flattery and they may follow for the "honors of men" or "to get gain". They also may be convinced in the "goodness," of their cause and that the noble ends justify any means.

I am pro- Israeli people but, Ze'ev Jabotinsky, Irgun/Lehi Group, and Revisionist Zionism is a philosophy that Israel was to be redeemed by "any means necessary". Israeli Prime Ministers Menachem Begin to Netanyahu (Father was Jabotinsky's secretary) and Rahm Emanuel are all linked to and sympathetic with this philosophy. Irgun/Lehi Group carried out some of the earliest terrorism and massacurs such as 1. Bombing of King David Hotel, 2. Deir Yassin massacre 3. Lavon Affair. 4. USS Liberty attack.

Some believe humanity needs global governance to ascend to becoming a Type-1 Civilization (see Machio Kaku, civilization types) "that can control the weather, earthquakes, and volcanos". Some Malthusians believe it is necessary for humanities survival due to climate change to meet 2030 sustainability goals where we all "own nothing and are happy". (see Georgia Guidestones, new 10 commandments). Yet the D&C teaches "the Earth s full and there is more than enough and to spare".

In many instances certain leaders and operational elements may oppose self-destructive directives because it hurts their business of making money. These leaders are quickly and often violently removed (eg Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi)

At the lext level, many people mindlessly follow along out of ignorance. The conspiracy refers to us as "useful idiots". The conspiracy hides its true evil intentions with "a good reason", "plausible deniability" and "compatmentalization" (left hand doesnt know what right hand is doing). Most of us just go along not asking too many questions, looking the other way, and ignoring our conscience.

The bottom level is filled with mercenaries, the addicted, the compromised, and criminals. These people don't care what the reasons are. This level only cares that the price is right, if their sins are kept hidden, or if they can be supplied with their next fix.

How does the conspiracy keep itself secret? The parts that are are hidden by 1. oaths, 2. legal non-disclosure agreements 3. blackmail (Epstein, PDitty). 4. compartmentalization, 5. controlled media 6. plausible deniability (just an accident). 7. Hidden in plain sight (not hidden).8. False defectors and disinformation 

How does the conspiracy keep itself from being infiltrated and discovered by investigators? Just like the mafia or gang, members earn trust and ascend in rank by being required to commit unspeakable and unconsconable evil acts, which we are commanded not to discuss. The Latter-day temple is the opposite, where members ascend by committing to and observing commandments of righteousness. The Church of Jesus Christ has ministering brothers and sisters. The Great Conspiracy employs handlers.

Alma 37:27 And now, my son, I command you that ye retain all their oaths, and their covenants, and their agreements in their secret abominations; yea, and all their signs and their wonders ye shall keep from this people, that they know them not, lest peradventure they should fall into darkness also and be destroyed.

Why is it important to understand the nature of the Great Conspiracy. I think the Book of Mormon wants us to understand it so we can: 1. wake up to the awfulness of our situation 2. repent of our sins 3. bring it to light. 4.stop supporting it and buiding it up. 5. not get mixed up directly fighting it (God will fight this battle), 6. be prepared spiritually and temporally for it's eventual and sudden collapse. 7. Focus on building Zion and NOT trying to save or fight Babylon. 8. Preaching repentance to people caught up in it.

D&C 123: 13 Therefore, that we should waste and wear out our lives in bringing to light all the hidden things of darkness, wherein we know them; and they are truly manifest from heaven

The Book of Mormon teaches that the Lamanites preached the gospel to the Gadianton Robbers and by so doing, erraticated them from their lands. So how do you preach to a Gadianton? First, many people are just unknowingly going along. If most good people were awake to the reality of conspiracy, they would immediately stop supporting it. Second, other people get involved thinking "this is just the way its done", "Satan isn't real". Once they get in, they feel stuck and in many cases, would like to escape, but feel they have already committed unpardonable sin and are beyond the reach of the Atonement of Jesus Christ.

I think the Book of Mormon, New Testament, and even Brigham Young teach that there is a way out. I think that the example of the Malafactor crucified next to Jesus and Sherem in the Book of Mormon. Sherem like the malafactor believed they had committed unpardonable sin. However, both followed a path of repentance that involved the following steps: 1. accepting Jesus Christ as Savior and Son of God. 2. Public admission of all their sins. 3. Voluntary submission to consequences and punishments even death penalty.

These steps of repentance do several things. 1. prevents false defectors who claim they have insider information but are actually acting as disinformation agents whose false claims only discredit or further obscure the truth. 2. Honest defectors who accept punishment without plea deal or appeal, seal their testimony with their blood. This is NOT blood Atonement. Only Christ's blood forgives sin. But public confession and voluntary submission to the penalty does validate their witness. Thus, true insiders who truly wish to repent may retain a hope in Christ and their validated testimony may uncover, root out, and finally shine a bright light on these destructive works of darkness.

Best Regards,

David Brosnahan

Reading List:

""Behold a Pale Horse",  

"None Dare Call it Conspiracy",  

"Creature from Jekyll Island", 

"Operation Keelhaul", 

"Confessions of an Economic Hit Man", "Naked Communist",  

"Tragedy of Hope", 

"Anglo-American Establishment"

"The Gulag Archipelago", 

"New Lies for Old"

"Target Patton", 

"Dark Alliance",

 The Book of Mormon".